RT Journal Article
SR Electronic
T1 Mortality from heart failure in an English population, 1979–2003: study of death certification
JF Journal of Epidemiology and Community Health
JO J Epidemiol Community Health
FD BMJ Publishing Group Ltd
SP 782
OP 784
DO 10.1136/jech.2004.028951
VO 59
IS 9
A1 Michael J Goldacre
A1 David Mant
A1 Marie Duncan
A1 Myfanwy Griffith
YR 2005
UL http://jech.bmj.com/content/59/9/782.abstract
AB Objective: It is widely held that there will be an epidemic of heart failure in Europe and North America as a result of increased survival from myocardial infarction and other coronary heart disease. The study objective was to discover if the decline in mortality from coronary heart disease has been accompanied by a rise in mortality from heart failure in the study population. Design: Analysis of database of mortality records including all certified causes of death, not just the underlying cause, from 1979–2003. Setting: Former Oxford NHS Region, England. Patients: Data from death certificates of all who died in the population covered. Main results: Mortality rates for heart failure fell at very similar rates as those from coronary heart disease. In men, the average annual fall in mortality from coronary heart disease was −2.7% (95% confidence intervals −2.8 to −2.5) and that from heart failure was −2.9% (−3.2 to −2.5). In women, the average annual fall in mortality from coronary heart disease was −2.3% (−2.6 to −2.1) and that from heart failure was −2.6% (−3.0 to −2.3). Conclusions: The decline in mortality from coronary heart disease has not been accompanied by a rise in mortality from heart failure. A future epidemic of heart failure, as a consequence of the decline in mortality from coronary heart disease, seems unlikely.