RT Journal Article SR Electronic T1 Confounding by indication in non-experimental evaluation of vaccine effectiveness: the example of prevention of influenza complications JF Journal of Epidemiology and Community Health JO J Epidemiol Community Health FD BMJ Publishing Group Ltd SP 951 OP 955 DO 10.1136/jech.56.12.951 VO 56 IS 12 A1 E Hak A1 Th J M Verheij A1 D E Grobbee A1 K L Nichol A1 A W Hoes YR 2002 UL http://jech.bmj.com/content/56/12/951.abstract AB Randomised allocation of vaccine or placebo is the preferred method to assess the effects of the vaccine on clinical outcomes relevant to the individual patient. In the absence of phase 3 trials using clinical end points, notably post-influenza complications, alternative non-experimental designs to evaluate vaccine effects or safety are often used. The application of these designs may, however, lead to invalid estimates of vaccine effectiveness or safety. As patients with poor prognosis are more likely to be immunised, selection for vaccination is confounded by patient factors that are also related to clinical end points. This paper describes several design and analytical methods aimed at limiting or preventing this confounding by indication in non-experimental studies. In short, comparison of study groups with similar prognosis, restriction of the study population, and statistical adjustment for dissimilarities in prognosis are important tools and should be considered. Only if the investigator is able to show that confounding by indication is sufficiently controlled for, results of a non-experimental study may be of use to direct an evidence based vaccine policy.