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A first estimation of the impact of public health actions against COVID-19 in Veneto (Italy)
  1. Dario Gregori1,
  2. Danila Azzolina1,2,
  3. Corrado Lanera1,
  4. Ilaria Prosepe1,
  5. Nicolas Destro1,
  6. Giulia Lorenzoni1,
  7. Paola Berchialla3
  1. 1Unit of Biostatistics, Epidemiology and Public Health, Department of Cardiac, Thoracic, Vascular Sciences, and Public Health, University of Padova, Padova, Italy
  2. 2Department of Translational Medicine, University of Eastern Piedmont, Novara, Italy
  3. 3Department of Clinical and Biological Sciences, University of Turin, Turin, Italy
  1. Correspondence to Professor Dario Gregori, Unit of Biostatistics, Epidemiology and Public Health, Department of Cardiac, Thoracic, Vascular Sciences, and Public Health, University of Padova, Padova 35131, Italy; dario.gregori{at}unipd.it

Abstract

Background Veneto is one of the first Italian regions where the COVID-19 outbreak started spreading. Containment measures were approved soon thereafter. The present study aims at providing a first look at the impact of the containment measures on the outbreak progression in the Veneto region, Italy.

Methods A Bayesian changepoint analysis was used to identify the changing speed of the epidemic curve. Then, a piecewise polynomial model was considered to fit the data in the first period before the detected changepoint. In this time interval, that is, the weeks from 27 February to 12 March, a quadratic growth was identified by a generalised additive model (GAM). Finally, the model was used to generate the projection of the expected number of hospitalisations at 2 weeks based on the epidemic speed before the changepoint. Such estimates were then compared with the actual outbreak behaviour.

Results The comparison between the observed and predicted hospitalisation curves highlights a slowdown on the total COVID-19 hospitalisations after the onset of containment measures. The estimated daily slowdown effect of the epidemic growth is estimated as 78 hospitalisations per day as of 27 March (95% CI 75 to 81).

Conclusions The containment strategies seem to have positively impacted the progression of the COVID-19 epidemic outbreak in Veneto.

  • PUBLIC HEALTH
  • COVID-19
  • Italy

This article is made freely available for use in accordance with BMJ's website terms and conditions for the duration of the covid-19 pandemic or until otherwise determined by BMJ. You may use, download and print the article for any lawful, non-commercial purpose (including text and data mining) provided that all copyright notices and trade marks are retained.

https://bmj.com/coronavirus/usage

https://doi.org/10.1136/jech-2020-214209

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    Footnotes

    • Correction notice This article has been corrected since it first published. The end statement heading ‘Open access’ has been removed, as this article is not open access. Instead, this article has been made freely available for use in accordance with BMJ’s website terms and conditions for the duration of the COVID-19 pandemic or until otherwise determined by BMJ.

    • Contributors Conceptualisation, DG: methodology; PB: formal analysis; DA: investigation; ND and CL: data curation; CL. and IP: writing—original draft preparation; GL: writing—review and editing, supervision DG.

    • Funding The authors have not declared a specific grant for this research from any funding agency in the public, commercial or not-for-profit sectors.

    • Competing interests None declared.

    • Patient consent for publication Not required.

    • Provenance and peer review Not commissioned; internally peer reviewed.