Background A corpus of research considering the social impact of Special Educational Needs (SEN) identification on diagnosis and has shown mixed effects. Qualitative research highlights the benefits of SEN identification due to the alleviation of stigma, and access to support (Ingesson, 2007; Glazzard, 2010; Leitão et al., 2017), while quantitative research, shows a negative impact on academic self-concept (Polychroni, Koukoura, & Anagnostou, 2006; Knight, 2021). Scant research has been conducted which investigates the impact of SEN on academic outcomes, which also considers categories of SEN (i.e., ADHD) (Parsons & Platt, 2017). We aimed to understand i) what factors contribute to being identified with SEN, ii) the educational attainment of those with SEN (overall, and specific diagnoses, and iii) to explore the timing of SEN diagnosis on attainment.

Methods Utilising administrative population data from the SAIL Databank in Wales, we linked demographic, education and health data, resulting in a cohort of children born between 1 September 2002 and 31 August 2008 (n => 200,000 children). We use SEN identification as both an outcome, and an exposure in analysis, with any SEN, and specific diagnoses including ADHD, Autism, Dyslexia and Behaviour Emotional Social Difficulty. Educational attainment at age 7, 11, 14 and 16 was used as an outcome. Covariates included school-attendance, deprivation, birth characteristics, healthcare usage and individual characteristics. We employed longitudinal multi-level models using the glmmTMB package in R, the data consisted of unbalanced panel data over 16 years of life.

Results We found that female children were less likely to be diagnosed with SEN (-1.73, -1.78 - -1.69), as were those who were breastfed (-0.58, -0.63, -0.54). Children born with a low birthweight (0.80, 0.70 – 0.90) or pre-term (0.19, 0.09 – 0.29) or in the summer (1.09, 1.04 – 1.15) were more likely to be identified with SEN. Greater deprivation (Townsend) was linked to a higher chance of SEN (1.53, 1.02 – 1.18) as were Free School Meals (1.41, 1.36 – 1.46). For attainment, any diagnosis of SEN had a negative relationship on achieving the educational benchmark at age 7, 11, 14 and 16 (-3.92, -3.97 - -3.87), adjusted for individual, birth, and school characteristics.

Conclusion Despite supportive policies, SEN remains to be an important contributor towards educational attainment, of which is shaped by socio-cultural factors, such as deprivation. This research contributes to the ongoing discourse on SEN policies, providing valuable insights for shaping future national-level policies and practices in Wales.