Aim We aimed to investigate the potential population health impacts of targets to reduce child poverty in England between 2024 and 2033.

Methods We used English upper-tier local authority level data to simulate the impact of different child poverty policy targets on infant mortality (cases per 100 000 live births per year), children looked-after (cases per 100 000 individuals aged <16 per year), nutritional anaemias (* *), and all-cause emergency hospital admissions (* *). We modelled the relative and absolute changes in outcomes under four scenarios: continued adverse trends, where poverty increased along projections until 2027 thereafter remaining stable until 2033; low-ambition, where poverty cumulatively falls by 15% after a three-year delay; medium-ambition, where poverty cumulatively falls by 25% after a two-year delay; and high-ambition, where poverty cumulatively falls by 35% after a one-year delay. Results were aggregated at national, county, and deprivation level.

Results Continued adverse trends worsened all outcome measures, with greater changes in the least deprived areas. All other scenarios resulted in substantial improvements to child health. Between 2024 and 2033, meeting the high-ambition target would decrease infant mortality by 1.2% [or 227 cases, 95% Confidence Interval or CI: 91 to 357], children looked-after by 1.6% [or 3 845 cases, 95%CI: 1 627 to 6 218], nutritional anaemias by 3.2% [or 357 cases, 95%CI: 262 to 448], and emergency admissions by 0.3% [or 25 443 cases, 95%CI 3 134 to 47 633]. Relative health improvements were particularly great in the East Midlands, whereas the largest absolute gains were seen in larger areas (e.g., London). The most deprived local authorities were most likely to experience relative and absolute benefits.

Results Implementing and achieving child poverty reduction targets could substantially improve child health and reduce health inequalities in England.