Background The COVID-19 pandemic has significantly impacted employment in the UK, particularly among older workers aged over 50 years. The economic inactivity rate within this age group has increased by 1.5 percentage points since the beginning of 2020, representing about two-thirds of the overall rise in UK economic inactivity among people aged 16 to 64 since the start of the pandemic. Understanding how pre-existing and post-pandemic ill-health may be associated to these trends can support policymakers in developing effective interventions to address these health factors and minimise early exits from work for this vulnerable population.

Objective Investigate associations between ill health and exit from employment (early retirement, economic inactivity) among older UK workers following the COVID-19 pandemic.

Methods Data on 5,529 UK Household Longitudinal Study (UKHLS) participants aged 50-66 who were economically active before the pandemic were used. Self-reported general health and long-standing illness were collected at baseline (pre-COVID-19: waves 10-12 before March 2020) and follow-up (post-COVID-19: waves 11-13 post-March 2021). Participants were categorized into three groups one year after the onset of the pandemic (post March 2021): remaining economically active, taking early retirement, or becoming economically inactive. Multinomial logistic regression analyses examined associations between pre-existing and post-pandemic reported health and transitions between these groups, while controlling for demographic and socio-demographic factors.Additionally, a placebo analysis was conducted for a period four years earlier (2015 to 2019 - prior to the pandemic).

Results Preliminary findings suggest significant associations between pre-existing health conditions, post-pandemic health status, and transitions in early retirement/economic activity among people aged 50-66 in the UK. Individuals with poorer pre-existing health showed higher probability to transition to economic inactivity (0.75, 95% CI: 0.44, 1.05) than early retirement (0.25, 95% CI: 0.02, 0.47). Significant associations were also observed between post-pandemic self-reported health, economic inactivity (1.62, 95% CI: 1.30, 1.95) and early retirement (0.33, 95% CI: 0.11, 0.56). These associations were more pronounced among females and people experiencing financial strain.

Conclusion This study provides evidence that ill health, both pre-existing and reported following COVID-19, is associated with both early retirement and economic inactivity among older UK workers. Addressing the increase in economic inactivity related to ill health among workers aged 50-66 years in the UK requires targeted policies and interventions. This study suggests there may be a role for support systems, rehabilitation programmes, and inclusive workplace practices to lessen the influence of ill health on exit from paid employment.