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Estimated glucose disposal rate and risk of arterial stiffness and long-term all-cause mortality: a 10-year prospective study
  1. Jin Sun1,2,
  2. Ning Wang3,
  3. Shengxiang Li4,
  4. Man Li1,
  5. Anhang Zhang1,2,
  6. Bangguo Qin1,2,
  7. Qiligeer Bao1,2,
  8. Bokai Cheng1,2,
  9. Shuang Cai1,2,
  10. Shuxia Wang1,
  11. Ping Zhu1
  1. 1Department of Geriatrics, The Second Medical Center & National Clinical Research Center for Geriatric Diseases, Chinese PLA General Hospital, Beijing, China
  2. 2Medical School of Chinese PLA, Beijing, China
  3. 3Jinan Seventh People's Hospital, Jinan, Shandong, China
  4. 4The First Hospital of Yulin, Yulin, Shanxi, China
  1. Correspondence to Dr Ping Zhu, Chinese PLA General Hospital, Beijing 100853, China; zp301hospital{at}


Background To assess the applicability of the association between estimated glucose disposal rate (eGDR) and all-cause mortality in the elderly population, and the mediating role of brachial-ankle pulse wave velocity (baPWV).

Methods This was a follow-up cohort study based on the cross-sectional survey of community-dwelling elderly. All participants in the study were included between September 2009 and June 2010, and the follow-up time was December 2020. Participants included 1862 Chinese community-dwelling elderly aged 60 years and above. Insulin resistance assessed by eGDR and arterial stiffness assessed by baPWV were the primary exposures of interest. Mortality, which was followed up until December 2020, was the primary outcome. Cox proportional hazards regression models were used to estimate the association of eGDR with mortality. The mediating effect of baPWV in this association was assessed by mediation analysis.

Results A total of 1826 participants with a mean age of 71.03 years old were included in the study. During the median follow-up of 10.75 years, 334 participants died. The adjusted HR comparing the highest versus the lowest eGDR quartile was 0.22 (95% CI 0.09 to 0.54; p<0.001) in the Cox proportional hazards model. The results of mediation analysis showed that baPWV had a significant mediation impact on the link between eGDR and all-cause mortality both as continuous or categorical variables.

Conclusion eGDR is an independent predictor of all-cause mortality in the elderly population. baPWV partially mediated the association of eGDR and long-term all-cause mortality as a mediator factor.


Data availability statement

Data are available upon reasonable request. The research data used to support the finding of this study are available from the corresponding authors upon request.

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Data availability statement

Data are available upon reasonable request. The research data used to support the finding of this study are available from the corresponding authors upon request.

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  • JS, NW and SL are joint first authors.

  • JS, NW and SL contributed equally.

  • SW and PZ contributed equally.

  • Correction notice This article has been corrected since it first published. The title has been corrected.

  • Contributors JS proposed the idea and drafted the manuscript. NW, SL, ML revised and corrected the initial manuscript. CK, AZ, SC, BQ and QB were involved in the accumulation of the relevant references. SW and PZ contributed to the conception of the study and helped perform the revision with constructive discussions. All authors read and approved the final manuscript, and PZ is the guarantor of this article. Authors co-supervised this work

  • Funding This study was supported by the ‘National Key R&D Program of China’ (funding number: 2020YFC2008900), 166 Special Project (233-CXCY-N101-07-18-01), Logistics Scientific Research Project of the Chinese PLA (19BJZ30) and China Postdoctoral Science Foundation (2022M713860).

  • Competing interests None declared.

  • Provenance and peer review Not commissioned; externally peer reviewed.

  • Supplemental material This content has been supplied by the author(s). It has not been vetted by BMJ Publishing Group Limited (BMJ) and may not have been peer-reviewed. Any opinions or recommendations discussed are solely those of the author(s) and are not endorsed by BMJ. BMJ disclaims all liability and responsibility arising from any reliance placed on the content. Where the content includes any translated material, BMJ does not warrant the accuracy and reliability of the translations (including but not limited to local regulations, clinical guidelines, terminology, drug names and drug dosages), and is not responsible for any error and/or omissions arising from translation and adaptation or otherwise.