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Excess mortality among essential workers in England and Wales during the COVID-19 pandemic: an updated analysis
  1. Melissa Matz1,
  2. Sarah Rhodes2,
  3. Martie Van Tongeren3,
  4. Michel P Coleman1,
  5. Claudia Allemani1,
  6. Vahe Nafilyan4,5,
  7. Neil Pearce6
  1. 1 Cancer Survival Group, Department of Non-Communicable Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine Faculty of Epidemiology and Population Health, London, UK
  2. 2 Centre for Biostatistics, Faculty of Biology, Medicine and Health, The University of Manchester, Manchester, UK
  3. 3 Centre for Occupational and Environmental Health, Faculty of Biology, Medicine and Health, The University of Manchester, Manchester, UK
  4. 4 Health Analysis Division, Office for National Statistics, Newport, UK
  5. 5 Faculty of Public Health and Policy, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
  6. 6 Department of Medical Statistics, Faculty of Epidemiology and Population Health, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
  1. Correspondence to Dr Melissa Matz, Department of Non-Communicable Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine Faculty of Epidemiology and Population Health, London WC1E 7HT, UK; melissa.matz{at}lshtm.ac.uk

Abstract

Background Excess mortality from all causes combined during the COVID-19 pandemic in England and Wales in 2020 was predominantly higher for essential workers. In 2021, the vaccination programme had begun, new SARS-CoV-2 variants were identified and different policy approaches were used. We have updated our previous analyses of excess mortality in England and Wales to include trends in excess mortality by occupation for 2021.

Methods We estimated excess mortality for working age adults living in England and Wales by occupational group for each month in 2021 and for the year as a whole.

Results During 2021, excess mortality remained higher for most groups of essential workers than for non-essential workers. It peaked in January 2021 when all-cause mortality was 44.6% higher than expected for all occupational groups combined. Excess mortality was highest for adults working in social care (86.9% higher than expected).

Conclusion Previously, we reported excess mortality in 2020, with this paper providing an update to include 2021 data. Excess mortality was predominantly higher for essential workers during 2021. However, unlike the first year of the pandemic, when healthcare workers experienced the highest mortality, the highest excess mortality during 2021 was experienced by social care workers.

  • MORTALITY
  • COVID-19
  • EPIDEMIOLOGY

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https://bmj.com/coronavirus/usage

https://doi.org/10.1136/jech-2023-220391

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    Footnotes

    • Twitter @Sarah_Rhodes1

    • Contributors MM had access to the data, conducted the formal analysis and wrote the original manuscript. MM, SR, MVT, MPC, CA, VN and NP reviewed the results and draft manuscript.

    • Funding This work was supported by funding through the National Core Study ‘PROTECT’ programme, managed by the Health and Safety Executive on behalf of HM Government (1.11.4.3941), and a grant from the Colt Foundation (CF/05/20).

    • Disclaimer This work was produced using statistical data accessed via the ONS Secure Research Service. The use of these data in this work does not imply the endorsement of the ONS in relation to the interpretation or analysis of the statistical data. This work uses research data sets which may not exactly reproduce National Statistics aggregates.

    • Competing interests None declared.

    • Provenance and peer review Not commissioned; externally peer reviewed.

    • Supplemental material This content has been supplied by the author(s). It has not been vetted by BMJ Publishing Group Limited (BMJ) and may not have been peer-reviewed. Any opinions or recommendations discussed are solely those of the author(s) and are not endorsed by BMJ. BMJ disclaims all liability and responsibility arising from any reliance placed on the content. Where the content includes any translated material, BMJ does not warrant the accuracy and reliability of the translations (including but not limited to local regulations, clinical guidelines, terminology, drug names and drug dosages), and is not responsible for any error and/or omissions arising from translation and adaptation or otherwise.