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Regional variation and predictors of over-registration in English primary care in 2014: a spatial analysis
  1. Patrick Burch1,
  2. Tim Doran2,
  3. Evangelos Kontopantelis1,3
  1. 1 NIHR School for Primary Care Research, Centre for Primary Care, Division of Population Health, Health Services Research and Primary Care, Manchester Academic Health Science Centre, University of Manchester, Manchester, UK
  2. 2 Department of Health Sciences, University of York, York, UK
  3. 3 Faculty of Biology Medicine and Health, Centre for Health Informatics, University of Manchester, Manchester, UK
  1. Correspondence to Dr Patrick Burch, Centre for Primary Care, University of Manchester, Manchester M13 9PL, UK; patrick.burch{at}


Background There are more people registered with a general practice in England than are estimated to be resident in the country. The reasons behind this are not fully understood. We investigated the levels of over-registration (or under-registration) in English primary care, their regional variability and their association with population and geographical characteristics.

Methods This was a cross-sectional study using mid-year population estimates for 2014 and general practice populations for the same year. We calculated levels of patient registration with English primary care, in relation to census-derived population estimates, at various geographical levels of interest: regions, clinical commissioning groups and lower super output areas (LSOAs, 2011 census derived geographical areas of 1500 people on average). We used linear regressions to investigate the relationship between levels of registration and area deprivation, urbanicity, ethnicity, age, sex and mean distance to practice.

Results The total over-registration rate for England was 3.9% (2 097 101 people) but there was wide regional variability. London had significantly higher levels of over-registration (6.0% and 515 063 people) than other areas in England. Higher levels of over-registration at the LSOA level were associated with greater proportions of non-White British residents, women, elderly people and higher levels of social deprivation.

Conclusion Our findings indicate that high mobility and health need may be the underlying causes of over-registrations. The regional variation in over-registration, with London being an outlier, points towards potential inequalities in resourcing of primary care and the ability of the National Health Service to adequately match funding to population need.

  • primary care
  • public health
  • general practice
  • health policy

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  • Contributors PB and EK: designed the study. EK: extracted the data from all sources and performed the analyses; is the guarantor of this work and, as such, had full access to all the data in the study and takes responsibility for the integrity of the data and the accuracy of the data analysis. PB: drafted the manuscript. TD and EK: critically edited the manuscript.

  • Funding This study was funded by the UK National Institute of Health Research (NIHR) School for Primary Care Research (Study No. R119014). The views expressed in this publication are those of the authors and not necessarily those of the National Health Service, the NIHR, or the Department of Health`

  • Competing interests None declared.

  • Provenance and peer review Not commissioned; externally peer reviewed.

  • Data sharing statement The data used in this study are freely available and the authors are willing to share in an organised and cleaned final dataset.