Introduction Predictors of mortality in old age have received much attention in the last 2 decades, but few studies have examined predictors of mortality in socioeconomically disadvantaged elderly populations in middle income countries. This study aimed at examining predictors of mortality in a community-dwelling population of Brazilian elderly with low income and very low schooling level.

Methods We used data of 1399 (80.3% from total) residents aged 60 and over in Bambuí City, Brazil.

Results From 1997 to 2007, 599 participants died and 6.2% were lost to follow-up, leading to 12 415 person-years (pyrs) of observation. The death rate was 48.3 per 1000 pyrs. Age (Adjusted HR 1.40; 95% CI 1.32 to 1.47 for each increment of 5 years), male gender (HR 1.80; 95% CI 1.47 to 2.21), never married (HR 1.78; 95% CI 1.34 to 2.35) or a widow (HR 1.26; 95% CI 1.03 to 1.56), poor self-rated health (HR 1.31; 95% CI 1.02 to 1.69), inability to perform four or more Activities of Daily Living (HR 3.29; 95% CI 2.17 to 5.00), number of cardiovascular risk factors (HR 1.51; 95% CI 1.20 to 1.92 and HR=1.91; 95% CI 1.40 to 2.62 for two and three or more, respectively), Trypanosoma cruzi infection (HR 1.27; 95% CI 1.06 to 1.52), and number of medications (HR 1.06; 95% CI 1.02 to 1.20) were each significantly and independently associated with mortality. The Mini- Mental State Examination score showed a protective effect (HR 0.96; 95% CI 0.93 to 0.99 for each increment of ten percentile unit).

Conclusions Except T cruzi infection, other predictors of mortality were highly consistent with those found in more affluent elderly populations.