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Epidemiology and policy
SP3-12 Predictors of 10-year mortality in a community-dwelling population of Brazilian elderly: the BambuÍ cohort study of ageing
  1. M F Lima-Costa1,2,
  2. J O A Firmo1,
  3. S V Peixoto1,2,
  4. D L Matos1,
  5. E Uchoa1
  1. 1Fundação Oswaldo Cruz, Belo Horizonte, Minas Gerais, Brazil
  2. 2Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais, Belo Horizonte, Minas Gerais, Brazil


Introduction Predictors of mortality in old age have received much attention in the last 2 decades, but few studies have examined predictors of mortality in socioeconomically disadvantaged elderly populations in middle income countries. This study aimed at examining predictors of mortality in a community-dwelling population of Brazilian elderly with low income and very low schooling level.

Methods We used data of 1399 (80.3% from total) residents aged 60 and over in Bambuí City, Brazil.

Results From 1997 to 2007, 599 participants died and 6.2% were lost to follow-up, leading to 12 415 person-years (pyrs) of observation. The death rate was 48.3 per 1000 pyrs. Age (Adjusted HR 1.40; 95% CI 1.32 to 1.47 for each increment of 5 years), male gender (HR 1.80; 95% CI 1.47 to 2.21), never married (HR 1.78; 95% CI 1.34 to 2.35) or a widow (HR 1.26; 95% CI 1.03 to 1.56), poor self-rated health (HR 1.31; 95% CI 1.02 to 1.69), inability to perform four or more Activities of Daily Living (HR 3.29; 95% CI 2.17 to 5.00), number of cardiovascular risk factors (HR 1.51; 95% CI 1.20 to 1.92 and HR=1.91; 95% CI 1.40 to 2.62 for two and three or more, respectively), Trypanosoma cruzi infection (HR 1.27; 95% CI 1.06 to 1.52), and number of medications (HR 1.06; 95% CI 1.02 to 1.20) were each significantly and independently associated with mortality. The Mini- Mental State Examination score showed a protective effect (HR 0.96; 95% CI 0.93 to 0.99 for each increment of ten percentile unit).

Conclusions Except T cruzi infection, other predictors of mortality were highly consistent with those found in more affluent elderly populations.

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