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WILL THE SARS EPIDEMIC RECUR?
Evidence based public health policy and practice
Out of the woods or in the eye of the storm?
  1. R A Chotani
  1. Global Infectious Disease Surveillance and Alert System (GIDSAS) Program for Humanitarian Assistance, The Johns Hopkins School of Medicine and Bloomberg School of Public Health, 615 North Wolfe Street, E-8132, Baltimore, Maryland 21205, USA; rchotani@jhsph.edu

    https://doi.org/10.1136/jech.57.10.776

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      As of 4 July 2003 there have been 8439 cumulative cases of SARS-CoV globally, which were identified in over 28 countries resulting in 812 deaths (a case fatality proportion of 9.6%).1 With the most recent date of onset of probable cases of SARS in Taiwan and Canada 16 and 19 days ago respectively, in four days’ time 20 days (two incubation periods) would have passed, the time required for the chain of human to human transmission to be considered broken.2 With the rapid decline in new probable cases there is jubilation that perhaps the scourge has been conquered. Fear prevails among researchers and scientists that the virus will persist in humanity indefinitely and will re-emerge with a vengeance during the winter of 2003.

      The reason for this fear is valid and based upon past experiences …

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      Footnotes

      • The Global Infectious Disease Surveillance and Alert System (GIDSAS) Program for Humanitarian Assistance, Schools of Medicine and Public Health, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, Maryland; Department of Emergency Medicine, Johns Hopkins Hospital, Baltimore, Maryland; Division of Health Systems, Department of International Health, Bloomberg School of Public Health, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, Maryland; Center for International Emergency, Disaster and Refugee Studies, USA