Abstract

STUDY OBJECTIVE--The aim was to predict death rates from ischaemic heart disease in England and Wales during the next 20 years. STUDY DESIGN--Age and sex specific death rates for 1968-1987 were used to predict national and regional trends until 2007. SETTING--The nine standard regions of England and Wales. RESULTS--There will be a large fall in deaths from ischaemic heart disease. The fall will be greater in men and women below 65 years of age. There will, however, be a sharp worsening of the north/south divide. The largest fall in any region will be in Wales. CONCLUSION--The campaign to change the national diet should give highest priority to the norther regions. Because infant growth is inversely related to adult risk of ischaemic heart disease, the poor growth of young children in some northern areas is a cause for concern.