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Price and consumption of cigarettes: a case for intervention?
  1. Julian Peto*
  1. MRC Tuberculosis and Chest Diseases Unit, London SW3 6HP


    It is suggested that cigarette consumption can and should be reduced by tax increases. As this contradicts a recent communication, the differences of analysis and the underlying models are discussed. Straightforward curve-fitting to serial social or economic data can be very misleading. If there is random drift, it is better to analyse consecutive changes of the parameters rather than their actual values.

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    • * Present address: DHSS Cancer Epidemiology and Clinical Trials Unit, Department of the Regius Professor of Medicine, University of Oxford.