It is suggested that cigarette consumption can and should be reduced by tax increases. As this contradicts a recent communication, the differences of analysis and the underlying models are discussed. Straightforward curve-fitting to serial social or economic data can be very misleading. If there is random drift, it is better to analyse consecutive changes of the parameters rather than their actual values.
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↵* Present address: DHSS Cancer Epidemiology and Clinical Trials Unit, Department of the Regius Professor of Medicine, University of Oxford.