Objective: To study the success and cost of modern medicine in industrialized, rich countries from 1980 to 1990.
Design: Cost per capita and per cent of gross domestic product (GDP) spent on health was related to: (i) mortality in six diseases amenable to treatment by modern medicine; (ii) the sum of those six diseases (avoidable disease); (iii) death due to other, unavoidable diseases; (iv) maternal and infant mortality; (v) life expectancy at birth; (vi) renal dialysis and transplantation rates. Efficiency was studied by comparing a country's avoidable mortality rates multiplied by expenses, to the mean for all countries.
Results: During the 10 years, avoidable death rate decreased 38% but unavoidable death rate only 10%. Life expectancy increased 3%. Cost per capita increased 107% but health expenditures, as per cent of GDP only 10%. There was a reasonable correlation between expenses and avoidable mortality but none between expenses and unavoidable death rate. In 1990 avoidable mortality was lowest in Canada, and highest in Japan. Cost was lowest in New Zealand, and highest in the USA. The efficiency index was highest for Australia, and lowest in the USA.
Conclusion: Modern medicine as we have studied it is successful. Avoidable death rate shows a steep uninterrupted decline over the last 50 years while unavoidable death rate shows only small decreases. Cost as per cent of GDP has increased only moderately. There is a correlation between expenses and mortality from avoidable but not from unavoidable diseases, and a large variation in efficiency.