The natural history of untreated multiple sclerosis in Iceland. A total population-based 50 year prospective study

The incidence of multiple sclerosis (MS) has reportedly increased over time; however, change in MS incidence has not been rigorously assessed globally.

We followed the guidelines for the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analysis (PRISMA) statement. Two independent reviewers systematically searched Scopus, PubMed and Web of Science for peer-reviewed publications in English from 1 January 1985 to 24 September 2020 reporting MS incidence for at least two contiguous five-year periods with clearly-defined case ascertainment. The outcome was change in MS incidence rate according to geographical region.

We identified 64 papers providing 65 regional estimates (including three paediatric-onset MS) across 24 countries covering ∼3% of the world's population (in 2000/1 or closest available total population for the entire country), with quality (adapted Newcastle-Ottawa Scale) ranging from sufficient to good. Studies were mainly from Italy (n=14 including San Marino), Norway (n=10) or Canada (n=9), with no studies in the Africa or South-East Asia regions. Of the 62 whole-of-population estimates, MS incidence rates: significantly increased in 38 (61%), significantly decreased in 13 (21%) and remained stable in 11 (18%). In the paediatric-onset studies, MS incidence was stable in two (67%) and increased in one (33%). Many estimates derived from only selected (often small) regions of a country. For 42 (68%) of the whole-of-population estimates (and two of the paediatric-onset estimates) a consistent case definition or diagnostic criteria over the entire study period was explicitly reported. Across the n=9 whole-of-population estimates based on a consistent case definition for the duration of the study period, and including a substantial proportion of the population of a country (≥one-third), incidence rates were stable in n=3, increased in n=3 and decreased in n=3. Studies using a consistent case definition covered ∼2.7% of the global population; incidence rates were stable in 0.9% of the global population, decreased in studies covering 1%, and increased in those covering 0.8% of the global population.

The studies reporting change in MS incidence rate over time were limited by world region and the proportion of the global population covered. Although by number of studies, the predominant pattern was increasing MS incidence, in studies where a consistent case definition was used across the duration of the study and with high population coverage, no predominant pattern of MS incidence was evident.

Multiple sclerosis (MS) is characterized by a great inter-individual variability in disease course and severity. Some patients experience a rather mild course, controversially called ‘benign MS’ (BMS). The usefulness of this entity in clinical practice remains unclear.

We performed a literature search in PubMed, Web of Science and Cochrane Library databases from November 1980 to December 2015, using the following key words: benign multiple sclerosis, diagnosis, imaging, prognosis, predictive, natural history and predefined inclusion criteria.

Our search yielded 26 publications. Most definitions were based on the Expanded Disease Status Scale (EDSS), which is heavily weighted towards physical disability. Between 30 and 80% of relapsing-remitting MS patients have EDSS < 3 or 4 at 10 years after onset. Having only one relapse in the first 5 years and EDSS ≤ 2 at 5 years or EDSS ≤ 3 at 10 years appears to be predictive for a prolonged benign disease course, without protecting against disease progression at a later stage. Evidence on the predictive value of MRI parameters remains limited.

Current BMS definitions have some predictive value for future physical disability, but do not take into account the age at EDSS and the potentially disrupting effects of non-EDSS symptoms and cognitive impairment. It appears to correspond to mild RRMS in the first decades and its prevalence varies. Since early and accurate prediction of BMS is not yet possible, the clinical relevance is limited. Research approaches are suggested.

The geographic distribution of multiple sclerosis (MS) is classically divided into three zones based on frequency that were established by Kurtzke in the early 1970s. In recent years, an increasing number of epidemiological studies have shown significantly higher MS prevalence and incidence rates.

The aim of this study was to review and update the geographic distribution of MS using incidence, prevalence and disease duration from the latest epidemiology surveys.

We conducted a systematic review of articles on MS epidemiology published between January 1, 1990 and December 31, 2012.

MS studies were grouped by continent: the Americas, Europe, Asia, Australia/New Zealand, and Africa. A total of 101 studies were identified according to the inclusion criteria, and 58 reported incidence estimates. Globally, the median estimated incidence of MS was 5.2 (range: 0.5–20.6) per 100,000 p-yrs, the median estimated prevalence of MS was 112.0 (with a range of 5.2–335) per 100,000 p-yrs, and the average disease duration was 20.2 years (range: 7.6–36.2).

In the past few decades, the global prevalence and incidence patterns of MS have changed dramatically. Regardless of the reason of increasing prevalence and incidence rate, we suggest the need for a novel classification system based on global MS disease burden. Adopting such a system would improve economic efficiency and prioritization in health policy planning for MS.

The epidemiology of multiple sclerosis (MS) in Iceland in1900–2000 is presented. The incidence increased significantly from 2.58×10⁵ in 1950 to 5.06×10⁵ in 2000 (from 2.71 to 7.03×10⁵ for women and from 2.55 to 3.10×10⁵ for men) with a yearly increase by a factor of 1.0816 per year for women and 1.01207 per year for men (Poisson regression analysis). Prevalence standardized to the European standard population rose from 29.9×10⁵ in 1950 to 131.7×10⁵ in 2000. The standardized prevalence was constantly higher amongst women (42.8–181.6×10⁵ vs. 16.7–81.5×10⁵ for men) with a female to male ratio of 2.6 in 1950 and in 2000. Mean age at onset for all patients increased from 27.8 years in 1950 to 30.7 years in 2000 (from 27.0 to 30.1 years for women and from 28.6 to 32.2 years for men). Children and adolescents (<18 years) were 9.6% of all, of whom 60% were diagnosed after 1970. Mean age of onset for children and adolescents was 14.7 years (9–17 years, 95% CI 4.2 years).

The rise in incidence and prevalence can have multiple explanations, including diagnosis of milder forms of MS, increased awareness of MS in the older population, better diagnostic measures and longer survival but the authors find it likely that there has been a true rise in the MS incidence.

The spectrum of disorders of the brain is large, covering hundreds of disorders that are listed in either the mental or neurological disorder chapters of the established international diagnostic classification systems. These disorders have a high prevalence as well as short- and long-term impairments and disabilities. Therefore they are an emotional, financial and social burden to the patients, their families and their social network. In a 2005 landmark study, we estimated for the first time the annual cost of 12 major groups of disorders of the brain in Europe and gave a conservative estimate of €386 billion for the year 2004. This estimate was limited in scope and conservative due to the lack of sufficiently comprehensive epidemiological and/or economic data on several important diagnostic groups. We are now in a position to substantially improve and revise the 2004 estimates. In the present report we cover 19 major groups of disorders, 7 more than previously, of an increased range of age groups and more cost items. We therefore present much improved cost estimates. Our revised estimates also now include the new EU member states, and hence a population of 514 million people.

To estimate the number of persons with defined disorders of the brain in Europe in 2010, the total cost per person related to each disease in terms of direct and indirect costs, and an estimate of the total cost per disorder and country.

The best available estimates of the prevalence and cost per person for 19 groups of disorders of the brain (covering well over 100 specific disorders) were identified via a systematic review of the published literature. Together with the twelve disorders included in 2004, the following range of mental and neurologic groups of disorders is covered: addictive disorders, affective disorders, anxiety disorders, brain tumor, childhood and adolescent disorders (developmental disorders), dementia, eating disorders, epilepsy, mental retardation, migraine, multiple sclerosis, neuromuscular disorders, Parkinson's disease, personality disorders, psychotic disorders, sleep disorders, somatoform disorders, stroke, and traumatic brain injury. Epidemiologic panels were charged to complete the literature review for each disorder in order to estimate the 12-month prevalence, and health economic panels were charged to estimate best cost-estimates. A cost model was developed to combine the epidemiologic and economic data and estimate the total cost of each disorder in each of 30 European countries (EU27 + Iceland, Norway and Switzerland). The cost model was populated with national statistics from Eurostat to adjust all costs to 2010 values, converting all local currencies to Euro, imputing costs for countries where no data were available, and aggregating country estimates to purchasing power parity adjusted estimates for the total cost of disorders of the brain in Europe 2010.

The total cost of disorders of the brain was estimated at €798 billion in 2010. Direct costs constitute the majority of costs (37% direct healthcare costs and 23% direct non-medical costs) whereas the remaining 40% were indirect costs associated with patients' production losses. On average, the estimated cost per person with a disorder of the brain in Europe ranged between €285 for headache and €30,000 for neuromuscular disorders. The European per capita cost of disorders of the brain was €1550 on average but varied by country. The cost (in billion €PPP 2010) of the disorders of the brain included in this study was as follows: addiction: €65.7; anxiety disorders: €74.4; brain tumor: €5.2; child/adolescent disorders: €21.3; dementia: €105.2; eating disorders: €0.8; epilepsy: €13.8; headache: €43.5; mental retardation: €43.3; mood disorders: €113.4; multiple sclerosis: €14.6; neuromuscular disorders: €7.7; Parkinson's disease: €13.9; personality disorders: €27.3; psychotic disorders: €93.9; sleep disorders: €35.4; somatoform disorder: €21.2; stroke: €64.1; traumatic brain injury: €33.0. It should be noted that the revised estimate of those disorders included in the previous 2004 report constituted €477 billion, by and large confirming our previous study results after considering the inflation and population increase since 2004. Further, our results were consistent with administrative data on the health care expenditure in Europe, and comparable to previous studies on the cost of specific disorders in Europe. Our estimates were lower than comparable estimates from the US.

This study was based on the best currently available data in Europe and our model enabled extrapolation to countries where no data could be found. Still, the scarcity of data is an important source of uncertainty in our estimates and may imply over- or underestimations in some disorders and countries. Even though this review included many disorders, diagnoses, age groups and cost items that were omitted in 2004, there are still remaining disorders that could not be included due to limitations in the available data. We therefore consider our estimate of the total cost of the disorders of the brain in Europe to be conservative. In terms of the health economic burden outlined in this report, disorders of the brain likely constitute the number one economic challenge for European health care, now and in the future. Data presented in this report should be considered by all stakeholder groups, including policy makers, industry and patient advocacy groups, to reconsider the current science, research and public health agenda and define a coordinated plan of action of various levels to address the associated challenges.

Political action is required in light of the present high cost of disorders of the brain. Funding of brain research must be increased; care for patients with brain disorders as well as teaching at medical schools and other health related educations must be quantitatively and qualitatively improved, including psychological treatments. The current move of the pharmaceutical industry away from brain related indications must be halted and reversed. Continued research into the cost of the many disorders not included in the present study is warranted. It is essential that not only the EU but also the national governments forcefully support these initiatives.

Clinical outcome of Chinese relapsing remitting multiple sclerosis (RRMS) patients is uncertain.

To study the long-term clinical outcome of Chinese RRMS patients.

RRMS patients with duration of 10 years or longer followed up in our hospital is retrospectively studied.

61 RRMS patients (75% female) were studied. Their mean symptom onset age was 25.9 years and mean duration was 20.6 years (range 10–33); 36% patients had received β-interferon and 30% azathioprine. Their mean EDSS scores were 3.3 (range 1–7) and 4.7 (range 1–8) at 10 years and latest follow-up (mean duration 20.6 years) respectively. At 10 years, 30% patients had EDSS score ≤2, 34% EDSS 2.5–3.5, 20% EDSS 4.0–5.5 and 16% ≥6; 18% developed SPMS. At latest follow-up, 15% patients had EDSS ≤2, 20% EDSS 2.5–3.5, 19% EDSS 4.0–5.5 and 46% ≥6.0; 53% developed SPMS. The median time from symptom onset to EDSS 6 was 22 years. No differences were detected in demographic characteristics, presenting neurological features, number of attacks in first 2 years, neuroradiological findings and disease modifying therapies between patients with EDSS <6 and ≥6 at ten years. EDSS scores at 10 years and latest follow-up were similar for patients who had received β-interferon and those who had not.

Hong Kong Chinese RRMS patients may have worse long-term clinical outcome than Caucasian patients.