Table 4

Growth models. 2009–2014 (alcohol-related) public order offences (per 1000 people)

ParameterUnadjusted (SE)Adjusted 1 (SE)Adjusted 2 (SE)
Linear trendQuadratic trendLinear trendQuadratic trendLinear trendQuadratic trend
Baseline (year 2009)1.290 (0.062)1.010 (0.112)1.143 (0.172)
Trend (2009–2014)−0.227 (0.013)0.013 (0.001)−0.227 (0.013)0.013 (0.001)−0.310 (0.037)0.023 (0.003)
p<0.001p<0.001p<0.001p<0.001p<0.001p<0.001
Effect on intercept
No policyRefRefRef
Low policy−0.060 (0.120)−0.104 (0.118)−0.068 (0.116)
Medium0.141 (0.096)0.045 (0.094)0.111 (0.094)
High policy0.678 (0.115)0.338 (0.117)0.495 (0.124)
p<0.001p=0.010p<0.001
Deprivation at baseline2.536 (0.396)4.233 (0.676)
p<0.001p<0.001
Population at baseline0.012 (0.023)−0.189 (0.040)
p=0.615p<0.001
Outlet density at baseline0.006 (0.001)0.005 (0.002)
p<0.001p=0.004
Alcohol-related hospital admissions at baseline−0.002 (0.001)−0.003 (0.001)
p=0.11p=0.027
Effects on slope
Low policy0.069 (0.025)−0.006 (0.002)0.069 (0.025)−0.005 (0.002)0.063 (0.025)−0.005 (0.002)
Medium0.069 (0.020)−0.007 (0.002)0.069 (0.020)−0.007 (0.002)0.055 (0.020)−0.007 (0.002)
High policy−0.058 (0.024)0.006 (0.002)−0.058 (0.024)0.006 (0.002)−0.080 (0.027)0.006 (0.002)
p<0.001p<0.001p<0.001p<0.001p<0.001p<0.001
Deprivation at baseline−1.130 (0.144)0.135 (0.012)
p<0.001p<0.001
Population at baseline0.067 (0.009)−0.005 (0.001)
p<0.001p<0.001
Outlet density at baseline0.000 (0.000)−0.000 (0.000)
p=0.243p=0.220
Alcohol-related hospital admissions at baseline0.001 (0.000)−0.000 (0.000)
p<0.001p<0.001
VarianceEstimatesExplainedEstimatesExplainedEstimatesExplained
Intercept0.37039%0.35214%0.33618%
Slope0.0060%0.0060%0.0057%
Residual0.0233%0.0231%0.0223%
R293.2%93.2%93.4%
  • Bold indicates p<0.05.

  • All models also adjusted for quarter (ie, 3-month period).

  • †Explained variance relative to model without explanatory variables (ie, only time trends as fixed effects).