Table 2

Growth models. 2009–2014 alcohol-related recorded violent crime rate (per 1000 people)

ParameterUnadjusted (SE)Adjusted 1 (SE)Adjusted 2 (SE)
Linear trendQuadratic trendLinear trendQuadratic trendLinear trendQuadratic trend
Baseline (year 2009)1.592 (0.046)1.314 (0.077)1.368 (0.117)
Trend (2009–2014)−0.171 (0.009)0.015 (0.001)−0.171 (0.009)0.015 (0.001)−0.177 (0.025)0.015 (0.002)
p<0.001p<0.001p<0.001p<0.001p<0.001p<0.001
Effect on intercept
 No policyRefRefRef
 Low policy−0.195 (0.089)−0.229 (0.079)−0.208 (0.079)
 Medium0.147 (0.071)0.074 (0.063)0.114 (0.064)
 High policy0.557 (0.085)0.302 (0.079)0.407 (0.085)
p<0.001p<0.001p<0.001
Deprivation at baseline3.031 (0.275)4.375 (0.461)
p<0.001p<0.001
Population at baseline−0.042 (0.016)−0.171 (0.027)
p=0.010p=0.035
Outlet density at baseline0.004 (0.001)0.002 (0.001)
p<0.001p=0.082
Alcohol-related hospital admissions at baseline−0.002 (0.001)−0.002 (0.001)
p=0.001p=0.010
Effects on slope
 Low policy0.103 (0.017)−0.009 (0.001)0.103 (0.015)−0.009 (0.001)0.097 (0.017)−0.008 (0.001)
 Medium0.032 (0.013)−0.004 (0.001)0.032 (0.013)−0.004 (0.001)−0.020 (0.014)−0.003 (0.001)
 High policy−0.047 (0.016)0.004 (0.001)−0.047 (0.016)0.004 (0.001)−0.078 (0.018)0.006 (0.002)
p<0.001p<0.001p<0.001p<0.001p<0.001p<0.001
 Deprivation−0.721 (0.098)0.080 (0.008)
p<0.001p<0.001
Population at baseline0.050 (0.006)−0.005 (0.000)
p=0.401p=0.897
Outlet density at baseline0.001 (0.000)−0.000 (0.000)
p<0.001p<0.001
Alcohol-related hospital admissions at baseline0.000 (0.000)−0.000 (0.000)
p=0.094p=0.025
VarianceEstimatesExplained†EstimatesExplained†EstimatesExplained†
 Intercept0.20913%0.15834%0.15734%
 Slope0.0031%0.0031%0.0032%
 Residual0.0101%0.0101%0.0103%
 R294.6%94.6%94.7%

  • Bold indicates p<0.05.

  • All models also adjusted for quarter (ie, 3-month period).

  • †Explained variance relative to model without explanatory variables (ie, only time trends as fixed effects).