Table 3

Growth models. 2009–2014 alcohol-related recorded sex crime rate (per 1000 people)

ParameterUnadjusted (SE)Adjusted 1 (SE)Adjusted 2 (SE)
Linear trendQuadratic trendLinear trendQuadratic trendLinear trendQuadratic trend
Baseline (year 2009)−2.136 (0.051)−2.476 (0.074)−1.881 (0.136)
Trend (2009–2014)−0.144 (0.013)0.020 (0.001)−0.144 (0.013)0.020 (0.001)−0.388 (0.037)0.043 (0.003)
p<0.001p<0.001p<0.001p<0.001p<0.001p<0.001
Effect on intercept
 No policyRefRefRef
 Low policy−0.185 (0.100)−0.218 (0.093)−0.167 (0.092)
 Medium0.116 (0.079)0.043 (0.074)0.149 (0.075)
 High policy0.481 (0.095)0.245 (0.091)0.488 (0.099)
p<0.001p<0.001p<0.001
Deprivation at baseline2.361 (0.240)3.074 (0.535)
p<0.001p<0.001
Population at baseline−0.013 (0.014)−0.204 (0.032)
p=0.373p<0.001
Outlet density at baseline0.003 (0.001)0.002 (0.001)
p<0.001p=0.104
Alcohol-related hospital admissions at baseline−0.001 (0.000)−0.004 (0.001)
p=0.101p<0.001
Effects on slope
 Low policy0.095 (0.025)−0.008 (0.025)0.095 (0.023)−0.008 (0.002)0.078 (0.025)−0.007 (0.002)
 Medium0.034 (0.020)−0.004 (0.002)0.034 (0.020)−0.004 (0.002)−0.003 (0.020)−0.001 (0.002)
 High policy−0.048 (0.024)0.004 (0.002)−0.048 (0.024)0.004 (0.002)−0.136 (0.027)0.012 (0.002)
p<0.001p<0.001p<0.001p<0.001p<0.001p<0.001
Deprivation at baseline−0.319 (0.146)0.032 (0.014)
p=0.029p=0.019
Population at baseline0.062 (0.087)−0.005 (0.001)
p<0.001p<0.001
Outlet density at baseline0.001 (0.000)−0.000 (0.000)
p=0.060p=0.011
Alcohol-related hospital admissions at baseline0.001 (0.000)−0.000 (0.000)
p<0.001p<0.001
VarianceEstimatesExplained†EstimatesExplained†EstimatesExplained†
 Intercept0.2189%0.17825%0.17228%
 Slope0.0030.3%0.0030.3%0.0035%
 Residual0.0280.4%0.0280.4%0.0281.5%
 R284.1%84.1%84.3%

  • Bold indicates p<0.05.

  • All models also adjusted for quarter (ie, 3-month period).

  • †Explained variance relative to model without explanatory variables (ie, only time trends as fixed effects).