Table 1

Eight plausibly occurring scenarios in terms of starting levels of and relative changes in mortality by socioeconomic group

StartChange in mortalityNr.Change in RRChange in RD
Declining mortalityRR>1, RD>0Δhl<0I.aRiseRise as long as RR<Δhl, then decline
RR<1, RD<0Δhl<0I.bRise to values above 1, then further riseRise to values above 0, further rise as long as RR<Δhl, then decline
RR>1, RD>0Δlh<0I.cDecline to values below 1, then further declineDecline to values below 0, then further decline as long as RR > Δhl, then rise
RR<1, RD<0Δlh<0I.dDeclineDecline as long as RR > Δhl, then rise
Increasing mortalityRR>1, RD>0Δlh>0II.aRiseRise
RR<1, RD<0Δlh>0II.bRise to values above 1, then further riseRise to values above 0, then further rise
RR>1, RD>0Δhl>0II.cDecline to values below 1, then further declineRise as long as RR > Δhl, then decline
RR<1, RD<0Δhl>0II.dDeclineDecline
  • Situations in which RD does not increase or decrease monotonically are presented in bold.

  • For simplicity, we ignore scenarios in which mortality declines in the higher socioeconomic group, but increases in the lower socioeconomic group (and vice versa).

  • RD, rate difference; RR, rate ratio.