Selected numerical data for four candidate conditions
| Condition | Innovation | Timing of introduction of innovation (range of variation between earliest and latest adopter) | Number of matches between innovation and mortality trend change (out of total number of possible matches) | Timing of corresponding change in mortality trend (range of variation between earliest and latest change, by gender) | Delphi results: median score† and whether consensus was achieved | Correlation between recent mortality level and mortality level before favourable change in trend‡ | Correlation between recent mortality level and mortality decline since favourable change in trend§ |
| HIV/AIDS | Antiretroviral treatment | 1987 the Netherlands—1995 Estonia | 11/14 | M: 1989 the Netherlands—1997 Estonia | 7; no | M: 0.53 | M: 0.50 |
| F: 1994 France—1995 Germany, Spain, Sweden | F: 0.91** | F: −0.27 | |||||
| Hodgkin's disease¶ | High-dose therapy and peripheral blood stem cell transplantation | 1985 Sweden—1999 UK | 3/12 | NA | 7; no | M: −0.40 | M: 0.76* |
| F: 0.00 | F: 0.73 | ||||||
| Breast cancer | 1) Screening with mammography | 1) 1975 the Netherlands—2005 Estonia | 5/14 | NA | 8; no | F: 0.84** | F: −0.19 |
| 2) Treatment with Tamoxifen | 2) 1976 UK and Sweden—1992 Estonia | ||||||
| Cerebrovascular disease | 1) Detection and treatment of hypertension | 1) 1970 Sweden—1997 Estonia | 17/24 | 1) M: 1974 Sweden—2003 Estonia | 7; yes | M: 0.56 | M: 0.79** |
| F: 1975 Sweden—2003 Estonia | F: 0.80** | F: 0.66* | |||||
| 2) Intensive management of stroke†† | 2) 1992 France—1998 UK and Estonia | 2) M: 1996 Germany—2003 Estonia, UK | |||||
| F: 2002 the Netherlands—2003 Estonia, UK |
*p<0.1, **p<0.05.
↵† On a scale from 1 to 9.
↵‡ Recent=2005; mortality level before favourable change=1995 for HIV, 1984 for Hodgkin's disease, 1991 for breast cancer and 1970 for cerebrovascular disease.
↵§ Positive correlations mean: lower mortality levels in 2005 are associated with steeper decreases in mortality. See‡for years.
↵¶ No mortality data on Hodgkin's disease were available for Estonia.
↵†† No timing of introduction of intensive management of stroke was available for Spain and Sweden.
F, female, M, male.