Table 5

 Fifteen year follow up in 6194 men with adjusted relative risks (95% CI) for major CVD events and the combined end point in two age groups according to initial BMI and weight change categories over five years (Q1 to Q5). Adjusted for age, social class, smoking, physical activity, alcohol intake, antihypertensive treatment, undiagnosed CHD, FEV1, systolic blood pressure, and total cholesterol

Number (cases)LossStableGainp Value linear trend‡
Significantly/marginally significantly different from stable group, **p<0.01; *p<0.05; †0.05<p<0.09. ‡Test for linear trend with weight change fitted as a continuous variable.
Major CVD
40–49 years
    <251587 (234)1.81 (1.11 to 2.95)*1.001.56 (1.19 to 2.06)*0.003
    25–27.4948 (167)1.17 (0.73 to 1.89)1.001.38 (0.98 to 1.94)†0.03
    27.5–29.9465 (116)0.42 (0.22 to 0.81)**1.000.92 (0.58 to 1.44)0.05
    30+230 (62)0.93 (0.49 to 1.76)1.000.90 (0.45 to 1.79)0.88
50–59 years
    <251313 (351)0.99 (0.66 to 1.47)1.001.09 (0.87 to 1.37)0.32
    25–27.4950 (280)0.76 (0.52 to 1.11)1.000.80 (0.60 to 1.09)0.76
    27.5–29.9474 (160)0.95 (0.64 to 1.42)1.001.03 (0.65 to 1.61)0.47
    30+228 (85)1.57 (0.86 to 2.85)1.000.97 (0.51 to 1.84)0.52
Combined end point
40–49 years
    <251587 (261)1.65 (1.03 to 2.65)*1.001.48 (1.13 to 1.94)**0.0005
    25–27.4948 (204)1.19 (0.77 to 1.84)1.001.61 (1.18 to 2.19)**0.003
    27.5–29.9465 (156)0.55 (0.32 to 0.93) *1.001.06 (0.72 to 1.57)0.007
    30+230 (98)0.87 (0.51 to 1.48)1.001.13 (0.68 to 1.89)0.09
50–59 years
    <251313 (376)0.91 (0.61 to 1.35)1.001.10 (0.88 to 1.38)0.27
    25–27.4950 (310)0.77 (0.54 to 1.11)1.000.85 (0.64 to 1.19)0.87
    27.5–29.9474 (178)0.86 (0.58 to 1.26)1.001.15 (0.75 to 1.76)0.19
    30+228 (101)0.99 (0.55 to 1.79)1.001.14 (0.65 to 1.98)0.25