Capture-repature estimates from covariate analyses for injectors age 15 to 44 years in Brighton, Liverpool, and 12 London Boroughs 2000/01
| Location, age, and sex | Total population | Observed IDU | Estimate of unobserved IDU | Total estimate of IDU (95% CI) | Estimated IDU prevalence (%) (95% CI) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| *Model interactions (data sources: A = treatment; B = syringe exchange; C = arrest referral; D = survey and A&E; C_D = C and D combined) and goodness of fit (G2 degrees of freedom, AIC). Brighton: interactions: A*B, A*C, B*D, C*D; G211.81, p value 0.98, degrees of freedom 24, AIC −36.19. Liverpool: males—interactions: A*B, A*C, B*C; G2 13.97, p value 0.45, degrees of freedom 14, AIC −14.03. Liverpool: females—interactions: A*B*D, A*C*D; G2 0.057, p value 1, degrees of freedom 6, AIC −11.94. London: interactions: A*B, A*C; G2 5.66, p value 0.225, degrees of freedom 4, AIC −2.34. †London boroughs: inner London: Camden, Hammersmith and Fulham, Islington, Kensington and Chelsea, Lambeth, Lewisham, Southwark, Westminster; outer London: Brent, Ealing, Harrow, Hounslow. | |||||
| Brighton* | |||||
| Females <30 | 29042 | 106 | 172 | 278 (174 to 853) | 1.0 (0.6 to 2.9) |
| Females 30–44 | 29622 | 98 | 319 | 417 (144 to 2165) | 1.4 (0.5 to 7.3) |
| Females 15–44 | 58664 | 204 | 490 | 694 (369 to 2196) | 1.2 (0.6 to 3.7) |
| Males <30 | 27156 | 259 | 132 | 391 (326 to 528) | 1.4 (1.2 to 1.9) |
| Males 30–44 | 31212 | 393 | 826 | 1 219 (773 to 2598) | 3.9 (2.5 to 8.3) |
| Males 15–44 | 58368 | 652 | 957 | 1609 (1154 to 3109) | 2.8 (2.0 t 5.3) |
| Total | 117032 | 856 | 1448 | 2304 (1514 to 3737) | 2.0 (1.3 to 3.2) |
| Liverpool* | |||||
| Females <30 | 52391 | 122 | 170 | 292 (166 to 3242) | 0.6 (0.3 to 6.2) |
| Females 30–44 | 49450 | 174 | 148 | 322 (207 to 2814) | 0.7 (0.4 to 5.7) |
| Females 15–44 | 101841 | 296 | 318 | 614 (384 to 2904) | 0.6 (0.4 to 2.9) |
| Males <30 | 47544 | 306 | 350 | 656 (529 to 862) | 1.4 (1.1 to 1.8) |
| Males 30–44 | 45746 | 620 | 1020 | 1640 (1401 to 2641) | 3.6 (3.1 to 5.8) |
| Males 15–44 | 93290 | 926 | 1370 | 2296 (2019 to 3297) | 2.5 (2.2 to 3.5) |
| Total | 195131 | 1222 | 1688 | 2910 (2546 to 4977) | 1.5 (1.3 to 2.6) |
| 12 London boroughs*† | |||||
| Females <30 | 336000 | 438 | 1208 | 1646 (1060 to 3405) | 0.5 (0.3 to 1.0) |
| Females 30–44 | 356991 | 563 | 2144 | 2707 (1696 to 12211) | 0.8 (0.5 to 3.4) |
| Females 15–44 | 692991 | 1001 | 3352 | 4353 (3156 to 10658) | 0.6 (0.5 to 1.5) |
| Males <30 | 317606 | 1255 | 3483 | 4738 (3641 to 6682) | 1.5 (1.1 to 2.1) |
| Males 30–44 | 350670 | 1979 | 5712 | 7691 (5901 to 10649) | 2.2 (1.7 to 3.0) |
| Males 15–44 | 668276 | 3234 | 9195 | 12429 (9994 to 15413) | 1.9 (1.5 to 2.3) |
| Total | 1361267 | 4235 | 12547 | 16782 (13793 to 21621) | 1.2 (1.0 to 1.6) |
| London estimates sub-divided† | |||||
| Inner London | 884856 | 3697 | 10987 | 14684 (10744 to 29203) | 1.7 (1.2 to 3.3) |
| Outer London | 476411 | 538 | 1561 | 2099 (1554 to 3743) | 0.4 (0.3 to 0.8) |