Effects on premature deaths delayed by reducing PM10 in Westminster from 1996–1998 roadside levels to UK standards
| Cause of death | Age | Source | Reductions to achieve PM10 annual mean objective | Reductions to achieve 24 h PM10 target for 31.12.2004 | Reductions to achieve 24 h PM10 target for 31.12.2009 | Effect of reducing pollution to 0 μg/m3 | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 40 μg/m3[gravimetric] | 20 μg/m3[gravimetric] | 50 μg/m3[gravimetric] with 35 permitted exceedences | 50 μg/m3[gravimetric] with 7 permitted exceedences | No of deaths delayed pa | Deaths delayed as % of total deaths in a year | |||
| Model 1d | Model 2d | Model 3b | Model 4b | |||||
| *Using effect estimate for PM2.5; APHEA, short term effects of air pollution on health—a European approach; NMMAPS, national morbidity and mortality from air pollution study; COMEAP: committee on the medical effects of air pollution; COPD, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease; ACS, American Cancer study cohort; HEI, Health Effects Institute. | ||||||||
| Total non-traumatic | All | London | 1.7 | 8.0 | 1.9 | 3.1 | 14.3 | 1.0% |
| APHEA*-2 (lag 0–1) | 3.3 | 16 | 3.9 | 6.3 | 29 | 2.5% | ||
| APHEA-2 (distributed lag 0–40) | 8.9 | 43 | 10 | 17 | 76 | 56% | ||
| APHEA-2 (distributed lag 0–40, with NO2) | 4.3 | 20 | 5.0 | 8.0 | 37 | 2.7% | ||
| NMMAPS†(original) | 2.3 | 11 | 2.7 | 4.3 | 20 | 1.4% | ||
| NMMAPS (revised) | 1.2 | 5.6 | 1.4 | 2.2 | 10 | 0.7% | ||
| COMEAP | 4.1 | 19.6 | 4.8 | 7.7 | 35.2 | 2.6% | ||
| Stieb et al | 3.6 | 17 | 4.1 | 6.7 | 30 | 2.2% | ||
| NMMAPS (original) pooled with APHEA-2 | 2.8 | 13 | 3.2 | 5.2 | 24 | 1.7% | ||
| Respiratory | All | London | 0.4 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 3.3 | 1.4% |
| COPD and asthma | ⩾65 | London | 0.6 | 2.9 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 5.2 | 8.8% |
| Total non-traumatic (chronic exosure) | All | 16yr ACS* | 22 | 106 | ||||
| Six cities study: HEI reanalysis* | 17 | 80 | ||||||
| Kunzli (95% CI) | 24 (14 to 34) | 114 (69 to 162) | ||||||
| COMEAP “most likely” effect estimate* | 6 | 27 | ||||||