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Climate change (Communication arising)

Regional warming and malaria resurgence

Nature volume 420, pages 627–628 (2002)Cite this article

Abstract

Disease outbreaks are known to be often influenced by local weather, but how changes in disease trends might be affected by long-term global warming is more difficult to establish. In a study of malaria in the African highlands, Hay et al.1 found no significant change in long-term climate at four locations where malaria incidence has been increasing since 1976. We contend, however, that their conclusions are likely to be flawed by their inappropriate use of a global climate data set. Moreover, the absence of a historical climate signal allows no inference to be drawn about the impact of future climate change on malaria in the region.

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Figure 1: Annual mean temperature for Nairobi airport (WMO 63741, 1.3° S, 36.9° E, 1,624 m) and Kericho (0.37° S, 35.35° E, 2,031m) are plotted as bars to show deviations from the averages for 1961–90 (19.0 °C) and 1988–97 (17.4 °C), respectively.

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Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Environmental Health Sciences, Johns Hopkins University, Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, 21205, Maryland, USA

    Jonathan A. Patz

  2. Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norwich, NR4 7TJ, UK

    Mike Hulme & Timothy D. Mitchell

  3. NASA, Goddard Institute for Space Studies, and Columbia University, New York, 10025, New York, USA

    Cynthia Rosenzweig & Richard A. Goldberg

  4. Climate and Human Health Research Unit, Centre for Vector Biology and Control Research, Kenya Medical Research Institute, PO Box 1578, Kisumu, Kenya

    Andrew K. Githeko

  5. Department of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences, University of Alberta, Edmonton, AB T6G 2G1, Canada

    Subhash Lele

  6. National Centre for Epidemiology and Population Health, Australian National University, Canberra, ACT 0200, Australia

    Anthony J. McMichael

  7. South African Medical Research Council, PO Box 17120, Congella, 4013, Durban, South Africa

    David Le Sueur

Authors
  1. Jonathan A. Patz
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  2. Mike Hulme
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  3. Cynthia Rosenzweig
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  4. Timothy D. Mitchell
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  5. Richard A. Goldberg
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  6. Andrew K. Githeko
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  7. Subhash Lele
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  8. Anthony J. McMichael
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  9. David Le Sueur
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Correspondence to Jonathan A. Patz.

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Patz, J., Hulme, M., Rosenzweig, C. et al. Regional warming and malaria resurgence. Nature 420, 627–628 (2002). https://doi.org/10.1038/420627a

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