Background Cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality in Russia is 2-3 times higher than in the rest of the developed world and accounts for 57% of all deaths. It has been observed that in recent years mortality from stroke is declining, whereas that from myocardial infarction is increasing. Modifiable risk factors: excessive alcohol and tobacco consumption, diet and sedentary lifestyles, have a negative effect on life expectancy resulting in high mortality rates. Russia, similar to most developed countries has observed a steady increase in body mass index (BMI) leading to a high burden of coronary heart disease (CHD), stroke and hypertension and associated costs. This paper looks at obesity related CVDs and costs for the Russian healthcare system.

Methods A Markov-type simulation has been utilised to estimate the future burden of the weight changes and costs up to 2050. Incidence, mortality and healthcare costs were collected for CHD, stroke and hypertension. The results have been simulated for 3 hypothetical scenarios to project a potential impact of policy interventions: a) assuming no reduction in BMI; b) 1% reduction in BMI across the population; c) 5% reduction in BMI across the population.

Results The disease prevalence rates will triple for diseases by 2050. Prevalence of CHD and stroke is projected to increase from 4,455 in 2010 to 12,723 cases only in 2050 (per 100,000 population). Hypertension prevalence is estimated to increase from 18,833 to 36,438 between 2010 and 2050. For the year 2050 in isolation, it is projected that nearly 280 incidence cases of CHD and stroke and 820 incidence cases of hypertension can be avoided with a 1% decrease in BMI across the population (per 100,000). A 5% reduction in BMI would, for 2050, cause a fall of nearly 7,600 incidence cases of CHD and stroke and 15,250 incidence cases of hypertension (per 100,000). Costs savings are substantial; 3-9 million Euros can be saved each year due to reduction in the BMI by 1% and 5% respectively.

Conclusion Disease and economic burden attributed to the projected obesity rates are severe and have alarming adverse effects on the Russian healthcare. Despite the recent decreasing trend in rate of stroke, it is projected to increase along with CHD and hypertension due to increased obesity prevalence. The risk factors, however, are modifiable and Russia should act immediately to establish a strong policy to prevent the future increases in rates of morbidity and economic consequences of CVDs.