Dengue constitutes a severe public health problem worldwide, especially in most tropical countries where environmental conditions favour the development and proliferation of Aedes aegypti.
Objective To identify priority areas of risk in various areas creating a numerical scale designated as low, moderate or high risk.
Methodology A retrospective descriptive study was done of historical accumulated cases during the years 2006–2007, 2008–2009, 2009–2010. The capital city and surrounding districts were selected for the study and the following indicators were calculated: the mean incidence rates of the three epidemic periods; the general house larval infestation rate by district before the SE 14-2010 (peak of the last epidemic); and the historical movement of different serotypes in each district.
Results Nine districts met the condition of population density. The average incidence rates of the three periods makes Asuncion first with 636.60 and Luque last with 167.69 per 100 000 inhabitants. The house larval infestation rate is in all districts of the metropolitan area >1%. The highest is 18.46% in Fernando de la Mora and the lowest 4.94% in Mariano Roque Alonso (MRA). The history of viral circulation shows that in the metropolitan area three serotypes, DEN 1, DEN 2, and DEN 3 have circulated. In the nine Metropolitan districts, four are at moderate risk and five are at high risk.
Conclusion This epidemiological risk scale for dengue fever may be useful for the allocation of resources in a more rational way and address the actions with a risk approach.
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