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Chronic disease
P2-288 Trend of lung cancer mortality in Brazil, 1980 to 2007
  1. M C de Souza1,2,
  2. A G G Vasconcelos3,
  3. O G Cruz4
  1. 1Instituto Nacional de Câncer (INCA), Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
  2. 2Programa de Pós-Graduação em Epidemiologia em Saúde Pública, Escola Nacional de Saúde Pública Sérgio Arouca (ENSP), Fundação Oswaldo Cruz (Fiocruz), Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
  3. 3Departamento de Métodos Quantitativos em Saúde, Escola Nacional de Saúde Pública Sérgio Arouca (ENSP), Fundação Oswaldo Cruz (Fiocruz), Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
  4. 4Programa de Computação Científica (PROCC), Fundação Oswaldo Cruz (Fiocruz), Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

Abstract

Objectives To describe the trends in mortality from lung cancer in Brazil and to identify the effects of age, period and birth cohort on these rates by sex.

Methods We conducted a time series study and calculated mortality rates (crude, specific and adjusted by age) from lung cancer, by sex between 1980 and 2007. To identify how age, period and birth cohort influence mortality rates from lung cancer APC models were adjusted.

Results The mortality rate from lung cancer is significantly higher among men compared the rates of women. The specific rates for men aged over 64 and women at all ages, are increasing. The adjusted rates had a greater increase among women. The effect of age indicates that the mortality risk increases rapidly from the early ages. The results of the birth cohort effect for men indicate a lower risk for those born after 1950 and an increased risk for women in all cohorts.

Conclusions The results of the younger generations indicate that current trends in mortality rates from lung cancer should be maintained for some years. The cohort effect observed among women born after 1925 suggests a mortality increase. The reduction in mortality among men under 65, suggests that, the trend started among those born after 1950, will continue. These trends are connected to the tobacco control measures.

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