Introduction Elevated blood pressure may lead to incident diabetes. Yet, data about the effect of different blood pressure components on incident diabetes in Middle Eastern women is lacking.
Methods we evaluated systolic blood pressure (SBP), diastolic blood pressure (DBP), pulse pressure (PP) and mean arterial pressure (MAP) as independent predictors of diabetes in Iranian women. We performed a population-based prospective study among 3028 non-diabetic women, aged ≥20 years. ORs of diabetes were calculated for every 1 SD increase in SBP, DBP, PP and MAP.
Results During ≈6 years of follow-up, 220 women developed diabetes. There were significant interactions between family history of diabetes and SBP, PP and MAP (p≤0.01) in predicting incident diabetes. In women without a family history of diabetes, all blood pressure components were significantly associated with diabetes in the age adjusted model; the risk-factor-adjusted ORs were significant (p<0.05) for SBP, PP and MAP (1.30, 1.34 and 1.27, respectively) with similar predictive ability (area under receiver operator characteristic curve ≈83%). In women with family history of diabetes, in the age adjusted model, SBP, DBP and MAP were associated with diabetes; in multivariable model, they were not independent predictors of diabetes.
Conclusion In women without family history of diabetes, SBP, PP and MAP, were independent predictors of diabetes with almost similar predictive ability; hence in the evaluation of the risk of blood pressure components for prediction of diabetes, the presence of family history of diabetes should be considered.
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