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Epidemiology and policy
P1-185 Estimating the attributable burden of cardiovascular disease following reducing the prevalence of diabetes to theoretical and feasible minimum risk level
  1. M Karami1,
  2. D Khalili1,2,
  3. B Eshrati3
  1. 1Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
  2. 2Research Institute for Endocrine Sciences, Tehran, Iran
  3. 3Arak University of Medical Sciences, Arak, Iran


Introduction Knowledge of the magnitude of attributable burden to cardiovascular disease (CVD) by diabetes, especially based on updated data are needed for health policy, priority setting and preventing CVD. This study aimed to estimate the contribution of diabetes to the attributable burden of cardiovascular disease in Iran.

Methods WHO Comparative Risk Assessment (CRA) methodology was used to calculating Potential Impact Fraction (PIF). Data on the Prevalence of newly diagnosed diabetes mellitus (NDM) and known diabetes mellitus (KDM) were obtained from 3rd Iranian surveillance of risk factors of non- communicable diseases and data on corresponding measures of effect were derived from a national- specific study with age and multivariate adjusted HRs. PIF were estimated on both theoretical minimum and feasible minimum risk. Uncertainty for the attributable burden was estimated by Monte Carlo simulation-modelling techniques incorporating sources of uncertainty.

Results Based on multivariate- adjusted HRs, by reducing the per cent of Iranian women with diabetes from 10.05% to the feasible minimum risk level that is, 5%, 6.8% (95% uncertainty intervals: 3.5 to 9.8) of attributable Disability Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) to CVD are avoidable and the corresponding value for men were 3.1% (95% uncertainty intervals: 1.4 to 4.8).

Conclusion Although data on the Prevalence of diabetes and corresponding measures of effect were obtained from an updated and country- specific source, but to better priority setting, PIF should be applied to updated and revised burden of CVD.

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