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J Epidemiol Community Health 2009;63:29 doi:10.1136/jech.2009.096719c
  • Thursday 10 September, Parallel session B
  • Trends in CVD

Stroke mortality trends for England: modelling the past to predict the future

  1. C. J. Sutton,
  2. J. Marsden,
  3. C. L. Watkins,
  4. M. J. Leathley,
  5. P. Dey
  1. University of Central Lancashire, Preston, UK

      Background

      In the UK, overall stroke mortality has declined. It is important to planners of health service provision to understand how trends in stroke mortality are changing and, given changes in population structure, how trends in stroke mortality will affect the future burden on the nation. We therefore aimed to investigate recent stroke mortality trends amongst those aged over 40 years in England and to make predictions of stroke mortality to 2015.

      Methods

      We obtained annual aggregated stroke death (ICD-10 …

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