Monitoring the severe acute respiratory syndrome epidemic and assessing effectiveness of interventions in Hong Kong Special Administrative Region
- 1Department of Statistics and Actuarial Science, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong
- 2Clinical Trials Centre, Faculty of Medicine, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong
- Correspondence to: Dr P Yip Department of Statistics and Actuarial Science, The University of Hong Kong, Pokfulam Road, Hong Kong; sfpyiphku.hk
- Accepted 4 July 2003
Abstract
Objective: To estimate the infection curve of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) using the back projection method and to assess the effectiveness of interventions.
Design: Statistical method.
Data: The daily reported number of SARS and interventions taken by Hong Kong Special Administrative Region (HKSAR) up to 24 June 2003 are used.
Method: To use a back projection technique to construct the infection curve of SARS in Hong Kong. The estimated epidemic curve is studied to identify the major events and to assess the effectiveness of interventions over the course of the epidemic.
Results: The SARS infection curve in Hong Kong is constructed for the period 1 March 2003 to 24 June 2003. Some interventions seem to be effective while others apparently have little or no effect. The infections among the medical and health workers are high.
Conclusions: Quarantine of the close contacts of confirmed and suspected SARS cases seems to be the most effective intervention against spread of SARS in the community. Thorough disinfection of the infected area against environmental hazards is helpful. Infections within hospitals can be reduced by better isolation measures and protective equipments.
- back projection
- Hong Kong Special Administrative Region
- interventions
- preventive measures
- severe acute respiratory syndrome
- SARS
