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Impact of alcohol taxes on violence in Hong Kong: a population-based interrupted time series analysis
  1. Carmen S Ng,
  2. Minnie Au,
  3. Linwei Tian,
  4. Jianchao Quan
  1. School of Public Health, LKS Faculty of Medicine, University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, Hong Kong
  1. Correspondence to Dr Jianchao Quan, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, Hong Kong SAR, Hong Kong; jquan{at}hku.hk

Abstract

Background Interpersonal violence is a major public health concern with alcohol use a known risk factor. Despite alcohol taxation being an effective policy to reduce consumption; Hong Kong, contrary to most developed economies, embarked on an alcohol tax reduction and elimination policy.

Methods To assess the impact of the alcohol tax reductions, we analysed population-based hospitalisation data for assault from the Hong Kong Hospital Authority, and violent and sexual crimes recorded by the Hong Kong Police Force (2004–2018). We conducted an interrupted time series using seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average models on monthly rates. Breakpoints in March 2007 and March 2008 were applied separately.

Results The 2007 tax cut was associated with sustained increases in violence-related hospitalisation rates for 35–49 age group (female: 0.19%, p=0.007; male: 0.22%, p<0.001; overall: 0.16%, p=0.007); and an immediate increase of 51.3% (p=0.005) in the rate of sexual crimes reported. Results for the 35–49 age group after the 2008 tax cut were similar with sustained increases in hospitalisation rates (female: 0.21%, p=0.010; male: 0.23%, p<0.001; overall: 0.17%, p<0.001). The 2008 tax cut was also associated with immediate increases in hospitalisation rates in children (female: 33.1%, p=0.011; male: 49.2%, p<0.001, overall: 31.5%, p=0.007). For both tax cuts, results were insignificant in males and females for other age groups (15–34 and 50+ years).

Conclusions Both alcohol tax reductions in 2007 and 2008 were in some age groups associated with increases in violence-related hospitalisations and reports of sexual assault even in an environment of low crime.

  • ALCOHOLISM
  • VIOLENCE
  • CHILD HEALTH
  • EPIDEMIOLOGY

Data availability statement

Data may be obtained from a third party and are not publicly available. Data are available by request from the Hospital Authority, Hong Kong (https://www3.ha.org.hk/data); and the Hong Kong Police Force (www.police.gov.hk/ppp_en).

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Data availability statement

Data may be obtained from a third party and are not publicly available. Data are available by request from the Hospital Authority, Hong Kong (https://www3.ha.org.hk/data); and the Hong Kong Police Force (www.police.gov.hk/ppp_en).

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Footnotes

  • Twitter @carmen.s.ng

  • Contributors CSN: conceptualisation; data curation; formal analysis; investigation; methodology; software; visualisation. MA: data curation; investigation; project administration. LT: methodology. JQ: conceptualisation; data curation; formal analysis; funding acquisition; investigation; methodology; project administration; resources; supervision; guarantor.

  • Funding Health and Medical Research Fund, Health Bureau of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, China (03170067).

  • Competing interests None declared.

  • Provenance and peer review Not commissioned; externally peer reviewed.

  • Supplemental material This content has been supplied by the author(s). It has not been vetted by BMJ Publishing Group Limited (BMJ) and may not have been peer-reviewed. Any opinions or recommendations discussed are solely those of the author(s) and are not endorsed by BMJ. BMJ disclaims all liability and responsibility arising from any reliance placed on the content. Where the content includes any translated material, BMJ does not warrant the accuracy and reliability of the translations (including but not limited to local regulations, clinical guidelines, terminology, drug names and drug dosages), and is not responsible for any error and/or omissions arising from translation and adaptation or otherwise.