© 2003 BMJ Publishing Group Ltd
EVIDENCE BASED PUBLIC HEALTH POLICY AND PRACTICE
Monitoring the severe acute respiratory syndrome epidemic and assessing effectiveness of interventions in Hong Kong Special Administrative Region
1 Department of Statistics and Actuarial Science, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong
2 Clinical Trials Centre, Faculty of Medicine, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong
Correspondence to:
Correspondence to:
Dr P Yip
Department of Statistics and Actuarial Science, The University of Hong Kong, Pokfulam Road, Hong Kong; sfpyip{at}hku.hk
Objective: To estimate the infection curve of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) using the back projection method and to assess the effectiveness of interventions.
Design: Statistical method.
Data: The daily reported number of SARS and interventions taken by Hong Kong Special Administrative Region (HKSAR) up to 24 June 2003 are used.
Method: To use a back projection technique to construct the infection curve of SARS in Hong Kong. The estimated epidemic curve is studied to identify the major events and to assess the effectiveness of interventions over the course of the epidemic.
Results: The SARS infection curve in Hong Kong is constructed for the period 1 March 2003 to 24 June 2003. Some interventions seem to be effective while others apparently have little or no effect. The infections among the medical and health workers are high.
Conclusions: Quarantine of the close contacts of confirmed and suspected SARS cases seems to be the most effective intervention against spread of SARS in the community. Thorough disinfection of the infected area against environmental hazards is helpful. Infections within hospitals can be reduced by better isolation measures and protective equipments.
Keywords: back projection; Hong Kong Special Administrative Region; interventions; preventive measures; severe acute respiratory syndrome; SARS
Abbreviations: SARS, severe acute respiratory syndrome; HKSAR, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region
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J Epidemiol Community Health 2003 57: 757.
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