Research report
Changing mortality patterns in East and West Germany and Poland.
I: Long term trends (1960-1997)
Ellen Noltea, Vladimir Shkolnikovb, Martin McKeea
a European Centre on
Health of Societies in Transition, London School of Hygiene and
Tropical Medicine, Keppel Street, London WC1E 7HT, b Centre of Demography and Human
Ecology, Institute for Economic Forecasting, Moscow, Russian Federation
Correspondence to: Ellen Nolte (ellen.nolte{at}lshtm.ac.uk)
Accepted for publication 3 April 2000
OBJECTIVES
To examine
the long term evolution of mortality in the former German Democratic
Republic (GDR) in the period from 1960 and its specific position in
health terms compared with the Federal Republic (FRG) in the west and
Poland in the east.
METHODS
Decomposition
of life expectancy by age and cause of death. Differences in life
expectancy at birth between the former GDR and the old FRG were
decomposed by age using data on all cause mortality for the period 1960 to 1997. Changes in life expectancy over time by cause of death were
examined using data for 1974 and 1989 for both parts of Germany and for
1974 and 1988 for Poland.
RESULTS
Male
life expectancy in the two parts of Germany diverged twice, in the
mid-1960s, favouring the GDR, and in the mid-1970s, giving increasing
advantage to the FRG, while female life expectancy remained similar
until the mid-1970s and began to diverge thereafter. The initial
advantage of the GDR was mainly attributable to an improving mortality
rate among children compared with that in the west in both sexes.
During the 1980s, mortality among men over 15 and women over 40 steadily worsened relative to their western counterparts, although men
were doing considerably better than those in Poland who actually
experienced deterioration. In the FRG, falling death rates among adults
of all ages have contributed substantially to the improvement in life
expectancy between 1974 and 1989, largely attributable to falling
deaths from cardiovascular disease and from injuries at younger adult
ages. In Poland, death rates among male adults have risen at all ages
over 35, mostly attributable to worsening death rates from
cardiovascular disease and neoplasms while women experienced
stagnation. The GDR showed a small worsening among men under 60, counterbalanced by improvements among those over 60, and some
improvement in women, attributable to falling deaths from
cardiovascular disease among the middle aged and elderly.
CONCLUSIONS
This study
provides further evidence for the complexity of the east-west mortality
differential emerging in the 1960s in Europe, highlighting the
intermediate position in health terms the former GDR occupied during
much of the communist period. Further research is required to assess
the underlying causes for the specific position of the former GDR
between east and west.
Keywords: mortality pattern; Germany; Poland
© 2000 by Journal of Epidemiology and Community Health
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